It Might Be Closer Than You Think

T minus six days and counting. The latest Gallup dailies (among likely voters using the traditional model) have the gap at 2-3%, which is closer than the 4-5% a week ago.   And an Obama campaign official discloses that the Obama campaign discounts stated poll results and sees the race tightening up in key states.  I know, that is what they are likely to say just to keep campaign workers from slacking off.  But unless your position is that the guy is just straight out lying, it sounds like the numbers the press is running with are not the same numbers that the people with money on the table (the campaigns) are using. 

Polling is one of two themes I've been following the last couple of weeks.  The other is media bias.  Here's a story about a couple of journalists over at Politico who come clean on media bias in favor of Obama in a story titled "Why McCain is getting hosed in the press."  Incredibly, they still manage to claim that "for most journalists, professional obligations trump personal preferences."  Yet here's what they say later in the story:

[T]he media often presumes bad faith on McCain’s part. The best evidence of this has been the intense focus on the negative nature of his ads, when it is clear Obama has been similarly negative in spots he airs on radio and in swing states.

You can read the whole piece and come to your own conclusions.  For me, it's just another indication that most journalists -- even highly respected ones -- couldn't reason their way out of a cardboard box.  Either their bias subverts their ability to reason or the capacity simply isn't there. 

Comments

[Dave]

And a quick note about political posts: Sure, I know my bread and butter is Mormon history, culture, and news, but how can one really get into a post on baptism or the 19th century with an election looming that will decide the fate of the nation (or at least its direction for the next two years)?

[Geoff J]

As I mentioned before, the Obama campaign surely loves this sort of post. The last thing they want is for Obama supporters to stay home and believing that it will be a landslide is the most likely thing that might keep Obama supporters home in key states.

I just read that McCain is nursing just a 5% lead in the polls here in his home state of AZ. That would be pretty embarrassing if he lost here. If he does it would be because of formerly right-leaning independents like me. I voted for a Democratic president for the first time this year. I can't stand the idea of more GOP buffoonery at the head of our country. If the Dems screw things up even worse I'll vote otherwise next time but I can't imagine them even being able to screw things up worse than the GOP has this decade.

[Ardis Parshall]

how can one really get into a post on baptism or the 19th century with an election looming

I get into exactly that exactly because it's a change from the steady diet of politics elsewhere! But then, I'm voting for Obama, so my example should doubtless be discounted. Let's take a poll.

[Dan]

Actually it won't be that close. I predict Obama will gain over 400 electoral college votes---including Arizona's.

[mike d.]

I've been wondering about the accuracy of polls in this election. There is a sense out there that Obama's ground game will get a lot more voters from groups that tend to under-participate out to the polls than have been seen in previous elections.

In order to poll accurately you need to use the right sample of voters, but this election will likely have different voter makeup than we've seen in previous elections. Turnout among blacks will be huge, and if the youth vote actually turns up for once then the polls are likely under-reporting the actual support for Obama. But then again these voters could just largely end up staying home like they have in the past. But if what you read about Obama's GOTV operations is true he's going to do very well.

As far as the media bias against McCain, I see it as backlash for being such patsies with the Bush administration post-9/11 up until Katrina.

[John Mansfield]

I've enjoyed getting a glimpse of Political Dave, a persona I wouldn't have guessed. It would be great if we could all keep that side of us packed away most of the time, and only let him loose for one month every four years.

[Dave]

John, the spirited conversation on these topics show that it's something people want to talk about. I'm just giving them a topic or article to focus on and a place to talk. Remember, the worst thing a blogger can be is boring.

[Dan]

Dave, you're not boring. :)

[DavidAK]

Dave, speaking of "people with money on the table", if you look at people who really have their money on the table, it's not even close.

[Jim Cobabe]

Dave,

I feel bad that you are taking so much flak for having a political position and representing it in public. You have every right to your own vote. Please don't feel discouraged that so many feel prompted to criticize. Perhaps they are simply expressing their own insecurity, in this confusing time.

[Dave]

Thanks for the thought, Jim. I doubt any TBO (True Blue Obaman) would admit of insecurity, but criticism does seem to be their prevalent modus operandi.

[Seth R.]

You know... doesn't the assertion of "look - the race in battleground states!" kind of ignore the fact that McCain is fighting in "battleground states" that really shouldn't have been battleground states in the first place? Like Indiana? Or Ohio? Missouri? Virginia?

Some of these really should have been safe states for McCain, but he's being forced to fight for them.

Thus, even if the race is tight in "battleground states" the overall outlook may still look very bleak for McCain.

[Seth R.]

Oops, the sentence should have been "look the race in battleground states is tightening!"