The Dailies Are Holding Steady

T minus nine days and counting. The latest Gallup dailies (for the traditional likely voter pool) are holding steady at about a 5 point lead for Obama. I suspect there will be a lot of post-election analysis directed at polling, given how central it has become to election reporting. Remember, the secret ballot election is the basis on which we evaluate polling, not the other way around. If it turns out McCain does better than polling is predicting, it's not that there's a problem with the election or with the voters, it's a problem with polling.

From the candidates: Go visit the Obama for America site that promises a tax cut to 95% of American workers (which makes me wonder how he'd define a "worker") and play around with the Obama-Biden Tax Cut Calculator. Be quick — I expect it will be taken down five minutes after the last polls close.

From Joe the Plumber's John McCain's campaign site, here is the "I Am Joe the Plumber" spot, with regular people proclaiming they are standing shoulder to shoulder with Joe. Of course, Joe himself has said he has not decided who he is voting for. Hmmm, wanna bet he's getting a few offers on the phone? Forget Colin Powell, what both sides want is a public endorsement from Joe the Plumber.

Comments

[Geoff J]

Joe is clearly and obviously a GOP guy based on his interviews. So much so that he is against Obama's plan even though it would reportedly be better for his own pocket book. (Sort of like lots of rich folks are for Obama's plan even though it would be worse for their pocket books I guess)

[Dave]

Geoff, possibly some people see a distinction between what Obama says would happen were he elected (95% of "workers" get a tax cut) and what the average voter suspects will actually happen.

[Geoff J]

Could be. When one is a dyed-in-the-wool partisan one can come up with innumerable reasons/excuses to not believe or vote for the enemy party candidates.

[Christopher]

Dave, I would guess, indicated by Obama's consistent lead in polls over the last month and a half since the economy became the only issue in the presidential race, that "the average voter" suspects Obama's tax plan actually will benefit them and get the economy back on track.

[Jim Cobabe]

Dave,

I wouldn't be surprised if either candidate's tax plan fails to be implemented in any recognizable form. The campaign promises are just that. The promises will be quickly forgotten in the face of harsh reality.

[Mark D.]

The Obama-Biden tax calculator is nearly useless because it does not itemize the tax cut (increase) it reports by proposed revision to the tax code.

In addition, it is worth remembering that Bill Clinton promised middle class tax cuts in his 1992 campaign as well and they never materialized.