Is It Over?

T minus eleven days and counting before bloggers have to start coming up with their own material again (that's hoping we don't get another month-long struggle over chads or fraudulent voting). Is it over already? The most recent Gallup Daily figures show Obama with a four point lead among likely voters (using Gallup's traditional measure of likely voters). So I don't think it's over yet -- certainly Charles Krauthammer hopes it isn't: "I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings." I'm with Chuck, but we all make our choices.

Victor Davis Hanson is talking like it's all over as he muses on what we have learned from the Palin candidacy, namely that the press is lame and feminism is dead. Hugh Hewitt warns Obama to beware of overconfidence.

Comments

[Steve M]

If you only look at national polls, McCain might still look like he has a chance (however, it depends on which polls you look at--the recent Gallup poll you cite is much more favorable to McCain than the other polls). But elections are determined on a state-by-state basis, through the electoral college. On that level, it's looking much more bleak for McCain.

I know enough about Democrats and their capacity to lose elections be overconfident here. But I am cautiously optimistic, and a part of me thinks that it's not even going to be close. (But then, another part of me thinks that it will be closer than some commentators and polls are suggesting.)

[Jacob J]

Yes. It's been over for months.

[Jim Cobabe]

Dave,

I'm not prepared to concede until the actual vote-counting. All the hired polls are not worth much -- they're not any different than so many other forms of prognostication.

I was listening to a Fox News interview with Zogby the other day. He runs one of the major polling services. He said he would not presume to predict what will happen -- there could be a big surprise even at this late date that would change the picture completely.

[Dan]

Dude, Obama is ahead in GEORGIA!

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/poll_obama_grabs_lead_in_deep-.php

This will be a blowout.

What I hope Republicans do after this spanking is realize that the politics they've employed for the past thirty or forty years has failed and does not endure. It culminated with George W. Bush, America's worst president ever. What Republicans need to do is get back to actually putting people in power who will be for small government: not in word, but in deed. Where were the small government Republicans during these past twelve years where we've seen the biggest expansion of government programs?

I'd like to see Republicans come to power who believe that the United States, both in terms of its citizens and in terms of the nation as a whole live within their means. That means that if you want to give out tax cuts, you MUST also equally cut spending to offset the loss of that tax income. THAT'S how you get a small government!

I'd like to see Republicans actually show more kindness and compassion, particularly to those who disagree with them. I'd like to see them stand up against torture, as they used to do when the Soviets tortured their prisoners.

Sadly, I think they will take the wrong message from this ignominious defeat and go ever harder to the right.

[Jacob J]

I'd like to see Republicans actually show more kindness and compassion, particularly to those who disagree with them.

That's rich Dan.

[Bill]

I thought it was over the day after Katrina.

[Clark]

It's been over since people started looking at Palin and found her largely ignorant of national issues beyond narrow Evangelical/social conservative ones.

Had Palin been more competent (and had she really fought against that bridge from day 1 and not had that troopergate issue) and had the economy not melted down and McCain panciked acting like he didn't know which way was up then McCain would have had a chance. But even then it was only a chance.

[Clark]

What I hope Republicans do after this spanking is realize that the politics they've employed for the past thirty or forty years has failed and does not endure.

30 or 40 years?!?!?

Some of us think that the Republicans blew it because (a) Bush was incompetent and (b) Republicans forgot about small government values.

[Gobama]

Steve M has it right. The popular vote doews not accurately show what a landslide this is likley to be. Watching McCain diminish himself with Rovian tactics and rhetoric has been like a Greek tragedy. Talk about losing your bearings!

GobamaBiden!

[The Only True and Living Nathan]

What I hope Republicans do after this spanking is realize that the politics they've employed for the past thirty or forty years has failed and does not endure.

Hmm. I don't know if you can call a tight race which will be decided by 2-3 points a "spanking." 70/30 would be a spanking, but this election, and the last, and the one before that sure don't qualify.

[Dan]

Jacob,

I'd like to see Republicans actually show more kindness and compassion, particularly to those who disagree with them.

That's rich Dan.

Yes, I've hit back, because if we in the middle and left don't hit back, we're called cowards. For future reference, if you strike at us, we strike back. It would be better for you to stick with the issues and step back from the character attacks.

Nathan,

Hmm. I don't know if you can call a tight race which will be decided by 2-3 points a "spanking."

That's because it will not be decided by 2-3 points, but by a landslide. Obama will probably get about 380 electoral college votes and about 6 or 7 points. That's a landslide and a spanking.

[Seth R.]

The polarize, divide, and conquer strategy in the GOP was mostly Karl Rove's baby.

It has been discredited.

But don't confuse Rove/Bush's strategy with "what the GOP has been doing the last 30 years." They are two different things.

[Dan]

Seth,

Please tell me you have forgotten Lee Atwater.

[Tim J.]

"It's been over since people started looking at Palin and found her largely ignorant of national issues beyond narrow Evangelical/social conservative ones."

Disagree. The only reason McCain would have won in the first place was going to be because of Palin. It obviously didn't work, but any other pick would have been a non-factor and would not have moved the needle much as the base would not have been mobilized.

And let's be clear what Rove did, especially in 2004. The strategy was not divide and conquer. He realized that it was pointless to try and convince the mythical "swing-voter". Instead, they concentrated on simply mobilizing people that were already prone to vote your way in the first place.

"It culminated with George W. Bush, America's worst president ever."

Dan, you have now mastered the art of hyperbole. Congratulations.

[JP]

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.

And Dan is apparently quite blind.

[Dan]

We're all blind, JP.

[Jacob J]

It would be better for you to stick with the issues and step back from the character attacks.

That's rich Dan.

[NorthboundZax]

"Victor Davis Hanson is talking like it's all over as he muses on what we have learned from the Palin candidacy, namely that the press is lame and feminism is dead."

Yowza! - if those myopic lessons are the ones being derived from the Palin candidacy, there is even a greater need for introspection than I realized.

[Geoff J]

That's rich Dan.

Hehehe. It was funny the first time you said it but move on to a whole 'nother level of amusing the second time...

[Dan]

Jacob,

In a fallen world, this is the reaping of the sowing of hatred and division. I make no excuses for myself. I will hit back and hit back hard. If you prefer not to receive it, don't dole it out yourself.

[Dave]

Dan's entitled to his view of things. He doesn't need to make excuses, hit back, or hit back hard. There will plenty of time for that after the election is over.

[Mark D.]

Most conservatives have about as much enthusiasm for George Bush and John McCain as they did for Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. A rejection of both is bad for Republicans in the short term, but in the long run why should the populace elect crypto-liberals when they can have the real thing?

The real alternative to left-liberalism is conservatism. Nominating and electing (incompetent) non-conservative Republicans discredits conservatism in the name of policies no true conservative would ever support.

We have had eight years of big spending, easy money and lax lending standards and the economy is in the tank. And in disgust, the electorate is going to empower a party whose policies are (much) bigger spending, easier money, and looser lending standards. Anyone who thinks that is going to fix the economy needs to relive the 1970s.

[ed]

Jim Cobabe keeps saying the polls aren't worth much.

Care for a friendly wager, Jim? I'll take the leader in the polls and give you 2-1 odds.

[Jack]

Dan,

Most republicans I know (including myself) are not happy with everything their party has done over the last few decades. I certainly hope you feel the same way about your party. Otherwise, you would be blinded by partisanism to the degree that even Mr. Lincoln could do no good in your view.

[mike d.]

I agree that Katrina was the real turning point, but the market meltdown of the past few weeks sealed the deal. Although it's evident that there is plenty of bipartisan blame to go around for the economic problems, the party in charge of the House for about the past 15 years (until 2007), the executive branch for the past 8 and the Senate for 5 of the past 8 years is going to take the brunt of the backlash. And the Bush administration did plenty to put us into a precarious situation.

I am definitely supporting Obama and hope he wins, but am also preparing myself to be disappointed once he's been in power for a few years. It's inevitable that he won't be able to live up to my expectations, but I'll always hold out hope.

I'd like to see a Republican Party that is a bit more in tune with what's going on the world today. I don't consider myself a Democrat, just would classify my affiliation as "not-Republican." There are too many issues where they have lost me. The big ones are:

Environmentalism: There is such a pervasive anti-environmentalist streak in the party that goes well beyond common sense. The bigger the population gets the more important it will be to preserve what's left before it's all gone. And they definitely don't take global warming serious enough. Real leadership is needed in that area.

Energy: Related to the above. "Drill baby drill!" is such a moronic mantra, and shows a complete lack of understanding of the situation we're in. We need to get off of oil period. We don't have enough reserves and as long as we're dependent on oil we'll be spending a fortune on it, sent to places like Russia, Central Asia and the Middle East, and we'll spend a fortune on our military to protect our access to the oil in those countries. Also if you think global warming is a real issue, then oil is not a long term solution anyway. We are a lot further behind in this area than we should be due to complete neglect of the issue by the Bush administration and GOP in general.

Taxes & Deficits: I'm okay w/ a repeal of the Bush tax cuts for the top tiers of society, but don't want to see any increases beyond that. Going to that level is in no way socialism. And we need to get the deficit under control. Bush was in a great budgetary position when he came into power and completely squandered it. The national debt will nearly have doubled under his command. Completely unacceptable. You should vote out the GOP for that alone.

Healthcare:Relying completely on the private sector is obviously not going to work long term. Some degree of federal management or oversight is inevitable and it would be nice to be able to accept that and start looking at real solutions. Just a tax break to buy insurance is not going to fix it.

Destruction of Government: Perhaps the most important. The Bush administration has badly damaged and dismantled so much of the federal government that we no longer have the competence or expertise that we once had. Morale among civil servants is dismal, and there were far too many political appointments with a lot of the experienced employees being forced out or leaving due to the environment they were forced to work in. The bigger and more complicated the country and economy gets the more good government becomes important.

The Culture Wars: I've had enough of them. Palin brought this back w/ a fury. Like somehow the only Americans that really matter are rural voters from the South, Midwest and Mountain West (and of course Alaska). Urban America is the economic engine that makes their lifestyles possible. But nonetheless all of us are real Americans and deserve to be treated as such.

If the GOP could address those issues I'd consider voting for them.

[David]

Unfortunately, it appears that many support Obama based on what they believe he will do as president based on what he says in speeches and in his books.

It would be wiser for them to take a look at what he has done in the past to better predict what he will likely do in the future.

His voting record indicates that he does not support, and it many cases opposes those values that he says he is in favor of.

The complete voting records of both of the candidates can be found in various places, but a consolidated source is:
http://www.votesmart.org/index.htm

At that site there is also a section that lists the ratings given to the candidates by various special interest groups. These ratings are a good indicator of where the candidate stands on issues that are important to each of us as voters.

I find that a number of them are very troubling in light of what he says he's going to do if he becomes president.

Here are a few of the ratings. The reader can check out each special interest group to see what they stand for.

This is just a small sample of the listings at votesmart.org. Remember, these ratings are given by the organization itself.

* NARAL Pro-Choice America (2007)
Obama 100%
McCain 0%

* Planned Parenthood (2006)
Obama 100%
McCain 0%

* National Right To Life (2005-2006)
Obama 0%
McCain 75%

* Family Research Council (2007)
Obama 0%
McCain 44%

* National Organization for Women (2005-2006)
Obama 91%
McCain 13%

* Secular Coalition (2006)
Obama 90%
McCain 20%

* ACLU (2007)
Obama 80%
McCain 50%

* Americans for Tax Reform (2007)
Obama 5%
McCain 70%

* Citizens Against Government Waste (2007)
Obama 10%
McCain 100%

* Conservative Index - John Birch Society (2007)
Obama 0%
McCain 43%

* Eagle Forum (2007)
Obama 7%
McCain 46%

* AFL-CIO (2007)
Obama 100%
McCain 0%

[Jack]

Let's not get lost in the madness of the present. These problems have been mounting up for decades--if not generations. Just go to Wiki and search any year within the last fifty or so. You'll see that the world has been coming to an end for a long, long time.

[Jack]

Let's not get lost in the madness of the present. These problems have been mounting up for decades--if not generations. Just go to Wiki and search any year within the last fifty or so. You'll see that the world has been coming to an end for a long, long time.

[Jim Cobabe]

Ed,

I think you misread my distrust of polling results. At this point, I am a disinterested observer, since I do not care for any of the popular candidates, and do not think they deserve my vote.

I am simply asserting that if it was something like a horse race, the polls would prove to be a poor predictor of the outcome.

[Mark D.]

"And they definitely don't take global warming serious enough"

The evidence for anthropogenic global warming is dodgy to non-existent. There hasn't been any net warming for a decade. Temperatures were comparable in the 1930s. Temperatures were significantly warmer during the middle ages. Antarctic ice is increasing.

Tropical temperatures (where models predict global warming should be the worst) haven't increased since 1980. The infamous hockey stick graph was based on a formula that will turn any set of input data into a hockey stick. And on and on...

The idea that we should impose massive carbon taxes or the equivalent at enormous cost to human health and welfare is just a tad premature. Left-liberals are always itching to destroy the economy in the name of some progressive cause or another, but conservatives shouldn't be so foolhardy.

Interesting graphs here:

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/search/label/graphs

[The Only True and Living Nathan]

Dan,

Quick civics lesson. Reagan vs. Carter was a landslide (489/49 electoral college). Reagan vs. Mondale was a landslide (525/13). Even if Obama wins by the margin you prognosticate, it's somewhat less than the spanking you proclaim it to be.