Dave's Mormon Inquiry

Are Mormons Misunderstood?

That's the headline in a longish Time story on Mormons, "The Church and Gay Marriage: Are Mormons Misunderstood?" It's a fairly balanced story, although the author still manages to impute "seamless unity" to the Mormon community while, at the same time, quoting two Mormons (a gay activist and the editor of an independent Mormon periodical) who plainly voice their own opinions, as can any Mormon who wants to. Interestingly, when the story was first posted last week, it carried a different title, "The Storm Over the Mormons." Here are the first couple of paragraphs.

The Future of Religious Liberty

Does it have a future? Some people view religious liberty as a civil and constitutional right; increasingly, others see it as a problem to be dealt with. The Mirror of Justice post "Securing Religious Liberty in an Age of Growing Intolerance" is a short reflection on what this means for the future of religious liberty.

Politics versus Sectarianism

I recently finished The Theocons: Secular America Under Seige and put up a short post on it elsewhere. But as I continue to mull it over I have a different idea to float than I discussed in the other post, namely that the rejection of Mitt Romney as a presidential candidate by religious conservatives in the Republican Party marks a triumph of sectarianism over politics that will undermine (or already has) the political influence of the theocons, to whatever extent you grant they have had influence.

Is There a Future for Theocons?

I recently read Damon Linker's The Theocons: Secular America Under Seige, a book that chronicles the author's view of the rising influence of the religious right in politics. I suppose I'm late to the party, but it's still an informative and worthwhile read. In the arc described in the book, the election and presidency of George W. Bush, who not only publicly admitted to being a Christian but also carved out a place for faith-based initiatives in his approach to social programs, was the highpoint of the theocon movement. What's left of it?

Your Crunchy Quotient

I stumbled across Crunchy Cons: How Birkenstocked Burkeans, gun-loving organic gardeners, evangelical free-range farmers, hip homeschooling mamas, right-wing natrue lovers, and their diverse tribe of countercultural conservatives plan to save America (or at least the Republican Party) at the local library a couple of weeks ago and couldn't resist. Any book with a subtitle that long must be worth reading. I don't mind being a conservative but I'm not especially keen on being crunchy, so before long I was quietly and defensively computing my own crunchy quotient.

Misguided Rights Talk

Funny what post-election behavior reveals about people. Republicans who lost the presidential race are quietly supporting a smooth transition of power to the incoming Obama administration; Prop 8 opponents are busy organizing angry marches and targeting Mormons for retribution, using misguided rights talk to justify this unfortunate response. A National Review Online piece, "Legislating Immorality," is a good place to correct some of this misguided rights talk.

Huckabee Redux, or Trying to Do the Right Thing

At Hugh Hewitt, "A Conversation With Mike Huckabee," including a text transcript of the entire interview. Governor Huckabee is promoting his new book, Do the Right Thing. The most interesting part of the interview, however, concerned his infamous remark suggesting Mormons view Jesus and Satan as brothers.

The Forgotten Man

Haven't heard much about Mitt Romney the last few months, but he's been busy. In the Wall Street Journal yesterday: "Romney's Campaigning Gives Him Big GOP Role." Romney has been doing a lot of in-the-trenches leg work — speaking at Republican rallies, supporting Republican congressional candidates, and using his PAC to raise and distribute money to candidates. The article notes that Giuliani has also done a lot of work since dropping out of the race.

Maverick or Messiah?

Today is the day when all those "undecideds" can either break right or break left or just stay home. Today is the day that everyone will see how how poorly (or how well) the polls have performed. Today is the day that the media can stop campaigning and get back to reporting. I'll have a post or two running today, then some sort of liveblogging going on this evening. Win, lose, or draw, tonight's the night.

On the Eve of Electoral Battle

T minus one day and not counting anymore. I finally submitted to the soul-sucking NY Times registration yesterday — I figure this election will fill my soul-sucking quota for the year, I might as well get the news too. So here's what the Gray Lady has to say the day before the election.

Missing W.

T minus two days and counting.  The NY Times ran a piece with six columnists writing on the theme "What I Will Miss About President Bush."  One, citing many staffers he interviewed, noted that "he never pointed fingers, harbored grudges, snubbed, publicly belittled or boasted."  Another said, "I’ll miss President Bush’s moral clarity."  A third said, "What I will miss most about George W. Bush as president is his sincere concern for promoting human dignity." 

Comedy or Farce?

In the waning days of a decisive election that may set the path of the United States for the next generation ... John McCain appears on a comedy show to mock himself and make jokes about his opponent.  What has our election process become?  Should we just chuck the debates and just go with candidate comedy routines?  A national joke-off?  In a further bizarre twist, Sarah Palin unwittingly fielded a prank phone call from a Canadian comedian posing as the president of France.  Canadian!  Like we can't produce our own lame comics this side of the border ... or even elect them.

Rumors of Tightening?

T minus three days and counting.  I keep reading rumors that the race is tightening, but it doesn't really pop out of the polls.  There is the Zogby poll which now shows McCain "within the margin of error" and actually outpolling Obama 48-47 among likely voters in the most recent dailies.  [Note: that link is to the main page, not the particular story, so what I'm quoting may not be there when you click through.]  But the Gallup likely voter dailies are moving strongly against McCain. 

Steve Young Pulls A Trick Play Out of His Bag

Call it the Prop 8 Reverse: "Steve Young lines up against Mormon church on Prop 8," in the SF Chronicle. I don't know that it will change many votes, but it certainly provides some cover for those Latter-day Saints in California who have "No on 8" signs in their front yard or who have made public statements detailing their opposition to Prop 8.

Quick Takes on the Infomercial

Wow. If I were more creative I'd write something like this. I'm more of a quip and comment guy. If Huey Long had made a video, this would be it. Some of you history types who think it's so chic to embrace the 21st-century incarnation of economic populism ought to do some reading and ponder a bit on Long and his Share Our Wealth program. FDR could figure out Long (he called him the most dangerous man in America). Can you?

It Might Be Closer Than You Think

T minus six days and counting. The latest Gallup dailies (among likely voters using the traditional model) have the gap at 2-3%, which is closer than the 4-5% a week ago.   And an Obama campaign official discloses that the Obama campaign discounts stated poll results and sees the race tightening up in key states.  I know, that is what they are likely to say just to keep campaign workers from slacking off.  But unless your position is that the guy is just straight out lying, it sounds like the numbers the press is running with are not the same numbers that the people with money on the table (the campaigns) are using. 

Coalitions of Power and Redistributive Change

T minus seven days and counting. Politicians hate it when their real agenda gets flashed to voters before the election. It spoils all that hard PR work they do trying to convince you they'll cut your taxes, give you cheaper health care, stop evil banks from foreclosing on your mortgage, and unite the planet. So I'm sure the Obama crew is fuming that someone dug up a radio interview where Sen. Obama himself spells out his "share the wealth" philosophy which (thank you Joe the Plumber) we know hasn't changed much since that radio interview. A transcript of some of the comments available here.

Can it be any clearer? Sen. Obama wants your vote to form a coalition of power to enact and execute legislation that will redistribute what's left of your money to people he thinks deserve it more than you do. If you like that plan ... don't vote, just move to France and live out your dream. If you don't like that plan, vote for the other guy.

What Does "Undecided" Mean?

T minus eight days and counting. A Salon piece argues that McCain is running better than the polling numbers show because most of the undecideds will break for McCain. Well, if they've held out against the Obama tide this long, maybe they will punch the chad for McCain, but it sounds more like wishful thinking. If you are rooting for McCain, you're better off hoping for a last-minute endorsement from Joe the Plumber.

The Dailies Are Holding Steady

T minus nine days and counting. The latest Gallup dailies (for the traditional likely voter pool) are holding steady at about a 5 point lead for Obama. I suspect there will be a lot of post-election analysis directed at polling, given how central it has become to election reporting. Remember, the secret ballot election is the basis on which we evaluate polling, not the other way around. If it turns out McCain does better than polling is predicting, it's not that there's a problem with the election or with the voters, it's a problem with polling.

The Knives Are Coming Out

T minus ten days and counting. The knives are coming out in the Palin camp -- according to the linked story, Palin is tired of being mishandled by bumbling staffers from the Bush team and she wants to preserve some credibility for future campaigns, while some inside the McCain campaign are apparently gearing up to place blame for the McCain campaign's failure on Palin rather than on themselves.

Update: An online commentator blasts this story, which apparently originated with CNN.

Is It Over?

T minus eleven days and counting before bloggers have to start coming up with their own material again (that's hoping we don't get another month-long struggle over chads or fraudulent voting). Is it over already? The most recent Gallup Daily figures show Obama with a four point lead among likely voters (using Gallup's traditional measure of likely voters). So I don't think it's over yet -- certainly Charles Krauthammer hopes it isn't: "I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings." I'm with Chuck, but we all make our choices.

Victor Davis Hanson is talking like it's all over as he muses on what we have learned from the Palin candidacy, namely that the press is lame and feminism is dead. Hugh Hewitt warns Obama to beware of overconfidence.

Some Sanity on the LDS Prop 8 Effort

From a surprising source, Andrew Sullivan at the Atlantic Online. After noting that roughly 40% of the Yes on 8 financing has come from LDS contributors, he notes, "It's all legal, and totally within their democratic rights." Thank you, Mr. Sullivan. He doesn't decry LDS participation in the campaign; he doesn't call for any efforts to harrass Mormons like the nutjobs over at Daily Kos; he doesn't try to identify and target individual LDS contributors like the people running and supporting the deceptively named Mormons for Proposition 8 site. He ends the short article with a simple suggestion that those who disagree with the LDS position donate to the No on 8 campaign. Bravo for a little online civility in this noisy election season.

Okay, Here's A Poll We Can Talk About

"AP presidential poll: Race tightens in final weeks," a new AP poll showing Obama at 44% and McCain at 43%, a statistical dead heat. I will skip any editorializing and just invite readers to offer their informed and balanced opinion as to why the race is now tightening up.

Can You Trust the Polls?

Polls have come to occupy a central place in media coverage of candidates and campaigns. That raises incentives for candidates, campaigns, and anyone interested in influencing the outcome of the election (cough, the media, cough) to stack published polls in favor of their preferred outcome. Does this really happpen? Go read an enlightening discussion at the WSJ, "Are the Polls Accurate?" Here's his first paragraph, which gives the simple answer:

FDR 2.0?

From the Wall St. Journal: "Get Ready for the New New Deal." If you don't know much about history, economics, or the New Deal, that might strike you as good news.